Sunday, August 26, 2007

Money Supply

In macroeconomics, money supply ("monetary aggregates", "money stock") is the quantity of currency and money in bank accounts in the hands of the non-bank public available within the economy to purchase goods, services, and securities. The rate of interest is the price of money. The two are related inversely, such that, as money supply increases interest rates will fall. When the interest rate equates the quantity of money demanded with the quantity of money supply, the economy is working at the money market equilibrium.

Introduction

The money demand market uses the same tools of analysis as to other markets: supply and demand result in an equilibrium price, where the free market (or long term) interest rate plus the quantity of real money available balances the demand for money. Short term rates are artificially manipulated by the Federal Reserve in the open market.

When thinking about the "supply" of money, it is natural to think of the total of banknotes and coins in an economy. That, however, is vastly incomplete. In the United States, coins are minted by the United States Mint, part of the Department of the Treasury, outside of the Federal Reserve. Banknotes are printed by the Bureau of Engraving & Printing on behalf of the Federal Reserve System. The Federal Reserve can also create book-keeping credits in the reserve accounts of its member banks, on the same terms as it can issue paper banknotes (by pledging collateral, usually in the form of US Treasury securities). As it always stands ready to exchange these book-keeping credits for paper banknotes, they are functionally equivalent.

In this respect, all paper banknotes in existence are systematically linked to the expansion of the electronic, credit-based money supply. Coinage can be increased or decreased outside this system by Legal Mandate or Legislative Acts. However, at present the coin base is held in check and used as a complementary system rather than a competitive system with private bank issue of electronic, credit-based money. The common practice is to include printed and minted money supply in the same metric M0.

The more accurate starting point for the concept of money supply is the total of all electronic, credit-based deposit balances in bank (and other financial) accounts (for more precise definitions, see below) plus all the minted coins and printed paper. The M1 money supply is M0, plus the total of (non-paper or coin) deposit balances without any withdrawal restrictions (restricted accounts that you can't write checks on are put in the next level of liquidity, M2).

The relationship between the M0 and M1 money supplies is the money multiplier — basically, the ratio of cash and coin in people's wallets and bank vaults and ATMs to Total balances in their financial accounts. The gap and lag between the two (M0 and M1 - M0) occurs because of the system of fractional-reserve banking.

Scope

Because (in principle) money is anything that can be used in settlement of a debt, there are varying measures of money supply. The narrowest (i.e., most restrictive) measures count only those forms of money available for immediate transactions, while broader measures include money held as a store of value

United States

The most common measures are named M0 (narrowest), M1, M2, and M3. In the United States they are defined by the Federal Reserve as follows:

As of March 23, 2006, information regarding M3 will no longer be published by the Federal Reserve, ostensibly because it costs a lot to collect the data but doesn't provide significantly useful data The other three money supply measures will continue to be provided in detail.

In an effort to reverse this change, Congressman Ron Paul introduced the now expired H.R.4892 on March 7th, 2006, and subsequently sponsored H.R.2754 on June 15th, 2007 which has been referred to the House Committee on Financial Services.

United Kingdom

There are just two official UK measures. M0 is referred to as the "wide monetary base" or "narrow money" and M4 is referred to as "broad money" or simply "the money supply".

  • M0: Cash outside Bank of England + Banks' operational deposits with Bank of England.
  • M4: Cash outside banks (ie. in circulation with the public and non-bank firms) + private-sector retail bank and building society deposits + Private-sector wholesale bank and building society deposits and Certificate of Deposit.

Link with inflation

Monetary exchange equation

Money supply is important because it is linked to inflation by the "monetary exchange equation":

\textrm{velocity} \times \textrm{money\ supply} = \textrm{real\ GDP} \times \textrm{GDP\ deflator}

where:

  • velocity = the number of times per year that money turns over in transactions for goods and services(if it is a number it is always simply nominal GDP / money supply)
  • nominal GDP = real Gross Domestic Product * GDP deflator
  • GDP deflator = measure of inflation. Money supply may be less than or greater than the demand of money in the economy

In other words, if the money supply grows faster than real GDP growth (described as "unproductive debt expansion"), inflation is likely to follow ("inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon"). This statement must be qualified slightly, due to changes in velocity. While the monetarists presume that velocity is relatively stable, in fact velocity exhibits variability at business-cycle frequencies, so that the velocity equation is not particularly useful as a short run tool. Moreover, in the US, velocity has grown at an average of slightly more than 1% a year between 1959 and 2005 (which is to be expected due to the increase in population, unless money supply grows very rapidly).

Percentage

In terms of percentage changes (to a small approximation, the percentage change in a product, say XY is equal to the sum of the percentage changes %X + %Y). So:

%P + %Y = %M + %V

That equation rearranged gives the "basic inflation identity":

%P = %M + %V - %Y

Inflation (%P) is equal to the rate of money growth (%M), plus the change in velocity (%V), minus the rate of output growth (%Y).

Money supply and cash

In the U.S., as of December, 2006, M1 was about $1.37 trillion and M2 was about $7.02 trillion. If you split all of the money equally per person in the United States, each person would end up with roughly $4,550 ($1,370,000M/301M) using M1 or $23,320 ($7,020,000M/301M) using M2. The amount of actual physical cash, M0, was $749.6 billion in December, 2006, almost three times the $261 billion in cash and cash equivalents on deposit at Citigroup as of the end of that year and roughly $2492 per person in the US. [7] [8]

Bank reserves at central bank

When a central bank is "easing", it triggers an increase in money supply by purchasing government securities on the open market thus increasing available funds for private banks to loan through fractional reserve banking (the issue of new money through loans) and thus grows the money supply. When the central bank is "tightening", it slows the process of private bank issue by selling securities on the open market and pulling money (that could be loaned) out of the private banking sector. It reduces or increases the supply of short term government debt, and inversely increases or reduces the supply of lending funds and thereby the ability of private banks to issue new money through debt.

The operative notion of easy money is that the central bank creates new bank reserves (in the US known as "federal funds"), which let the banks lend out more money. These loans get spent, and the proceeds get deposited at other banks. Whatever is not required to be held as reserves is then lent out again, and through the magic of the "money multiplier", loans and bank deposits go up by many times the initial injection of reserves.

However in the 1970s the reserve requirements on deposits started to fall with the emergence of money market funds, which require no reserves. Then in the early 1990s, reserve requirements were dropped to zero on savings deposits, CDs, and Eurocurrency deposits. At present, reserve requirements apply only to "transactions deposits" - essentially checking accounts. The vast majority of funding sources used by Private Banks to create loans have nothing to do with bank reserves and in effect create what is known as "moral hazard" and speculative bubble economies.

These days, commercial and industrial loans are financed by issuing large denomination CDs. Money market deposits are largely used to lend to corporations who issue commercial paper. Consumer loans are also made using savings deposits which are not subject to reserve requirements. These loans can be bunched into securities and sold to somebody else, taking them off of the bank's books.

The point is simple. Commercial, industrial and consumer loans no longer have any link to bank reserves. Since 1995, the volume of such loans has exploded, while bank reserves have declined.

In recent years, the irrelevance of open market operations has also been argued by academic economists renown for their work on the implications of rational expectations, including Robert Lucas, Jr., Thomas Sargent, Neil Wallace, Finn E. Kydland, Edward C. Prescott and Scott Freeman.

Arguments

Assuming that prices do not instantly adjust to equate supply and demand, one of the principal jobs of central banks is to ensure that aggregate (or overall) demand matches the potential supply of an economy. Central banks can do this because overall demand can be controlled by the money supply. By putting more money into circulation, the central bank can stimulate demand. By taking money out of circulation, the central bank can reduce demand.

For instance, if there is an overall shortfall of demand relative to supply (that is, a given economy can potentially produce more goods than consumers wish to buy) then some resources in the economy will be unemployed (i.e., there will be a recession). In this case the central bank can stimulate demand by increasing the money supply. In theory the extra demand will then lead to job creation for the unemployed resources (people, machines, land), leading back to full employment (more precisely, back to the natural rate of unemployment, which is basically determined by the amount of government regulation and is different in different countries).

However, central banks have a difficult balancing act because, if they print too much money, demand will outstrip an economy's ability to supply so that, even when all resources are employed, demand still cannot be satisfied. In this case, unemployment will fall back to the natural rate and there will then be competition for the last remaining labour, leading to wage rises and inflation. This can then lead to another recession as the central bank takes money out of circulation (raising interest rates in the process) to try and damp down demand.

The main debate amongst economists in the second half of the twentieth century concerned the central banks ability to know how much money to inject into or take out of circulation under different circumstances. Some economists like Milton Friedman believed that the central bank would always get it wrong, leading to wider swings in the economy than if it were just left alone. That is why they advocated a non-interventionist approach.

Current Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, has suggested that over the last 10 to 15 years, many modern central banks have become relatively adept at manipulation of the money supply, leading to a smoother business cycle, with recessions tending to be smaller and less frequent than in earlier decades, a phenomenon he terms "The Great Moderation" .

Central banks operating under a fixed/pegged exchange rate system cannot use the money supply to stimulate demand since the effects on the interest rate would affect the exchange rate. Such central banks generally use inflation targeting, trying to keep a steady and low inflation and hence exchange rate, leaving policy directly affecting the goods and labor market to the governmen


Reserve Requirement

The reserve requirement (or required reserve ratio) is a bank regulation that sets the minimum reserves each bank must hold to customer deposits and notes. These reserves are designed to satisfy withdrawal demands, and would normally be in the form of fiat currency stored in a bank vault (vault cash), or with a central bank.

The reserve ratio is sometimes used as a tool in monetary policy, influencing the country's economy, borrowing, and interest rates [2]. However, Central banks rarely alter the reserve requirements due to the fact that it would cause immediate liquidity problems for banks with low excess reserves. Instead, open market operations are used. As of 2006 the required reserve ratio in the United States was 10% on transaction deposits (component of money supply "M1"), and zero on time deposits and all other deposits.

An institution that holds reserves in excess of the required amount is said to hold excess reserves.

Reserve ratios

A cash reserve ratio (or CRR) is the percentage of bank reserves to deposits and notes. The cash reserve ratio is also known as the cash asset ratio or liquidity ratio. The Bank of England holds to a voluntary reserve ratio system. In 1998 the average cash reserve ratio across the entire United Kingdom banking system was 3.1%. Other countries have required reserve ratios (or RRRs) that are statutorily enforced (sourced from Monetary Macroeconomics by Dr. Pinar Yesin ):

Country Required
Reserve
Ratio %
Australia None
Canada None
Mexico None
Sweden None
United Kingdom None
Eurozone 2.00
Slovakia 2.00
Switzerland 2.50
Chile 4.50
India 7.00
Bulgaria 8.00
Latvia 8.00
Burundi 8.50
Hungary 8.75
China 12.00
Pakistan 7.00
Ghana 9.00
United States 10.00
Estonia 15.00
Zambia 17.50
Croatia 19.00
Tajikistan 20.00
Suriname 35.00
Jordan 80.00

In some countries, the cash reserve ratios have decreased over time (sourced from IMF Financial Statistic Yearbook):

Country 1968 1978 1988 1998
United Kingdom 20.5 15.9 5.0 3.1
Turkey 58.3 62.7 30.8 18.0
Germany 19.0 19.3 17.2 11.9
United States 12.3 10.1 8.5 10.3

Effects on money supply

Reserve requirements affect the potential of the banking system to create transaction deposits. If the reserve requirement is 10%, for example, a bank that receives a $100 cash deposit can lend up to $90 of that deposit, keeping only a $10 cash deposit within the bank. If the borrower then writes a check to someone who deposited the $90, the bank receiving that deposit can lend out $81. As this fractional-reserve banking process continues, the banks can expand the initial deposit of $100 into a maximum of $1,000 of money ($100+$90+81+$72.90+...=$1,000). In contrast, with a 20% reserve requirement, the banking system would be able to expand the initial $100 deposit into a maximum of $500 ($100+$80+$64+$51.20+...=$500). Thus, higher reserve requirements should result in reduced creation of transaction deposits.

Reserve requirements apply only to transaction accounts, which are components of M1, a narrowly defined measure of money. Deposits that are components of M2 and M3 (but not M1), such as savings accounts and time deposits such as CDs, have no reserve requirements and therefore can expand without regard to reserve levels. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve operates in a way that permits banks to acquire the reserves they need to meet their requirements from the money market, so long as they are willing to pay the prevailing price (the federal funds rate) for borrowed reserves. Consequently, reserve requirements currently play a relatively limited role in money creation in the United States.


Money Creation

Money creation is the process by which the money supply of a country is increased. There are several ways that a government, in coordination with the country's commercial banks, can increase or decrease the money supply of a country. If a country follows a fractional-reserve banking regime, as virtually all countries do, not all of the money in circulation needs to be backed by other currencies, physical assets such as gold, or government assets. Instead, the non-currency portion of the money is backed by loans, mortgages, and other bank assets. The currency component of the money is backed by the economic potential of the country and is based on government fiat, or decree. This perceived potential puts a theoretical limit on the amount of money a country can prudently create.

Money Multiplier

The most common mechanism used to generate money is typically called the money multiplier. It measures the amount by which the commercial banking system increases the money supply. To control the amount of money created by the system, central banks place reserve ratios on the commercial banks which set the proportion of primary deposits the banks may not lend out.

The reserve ratio is to prevent banks from:

  1. having a shortage of cash when large deposits are withdrawn.
  2. generating too much money

This system works as follows.

For example, let's assume that a primary deposit ie. cash of 100,000 is made into Bank AA. If the cash reserve ratio is 10%, then 10,000 must be kept on hand by Bank AA (10,000 is 10% of 100,000) and up to 90,000 of new loans can be issued by Bank AA. When the 90,000 worth of loans are deposited into Bank BB, this sum is added to the reserves of Bank BB and an additional 81,000 of new loans can then be issued by Bank BB (81,000 is 90% of 90,000).

The money creation process is affected by the currency drain ratio (the propensity of the public to hold cash rather than deposit it in the banking system), the clearing house drain (the loss of deposits from the system due to interactions between banks), and the safety reserve ratio (excess reserves beyond the legal requirement that commercial banks voluntarily hold—usually a very small amount). Also, most jurisdictions require different levels of reserves for different types of deposits. Foreign currency deposits, domestic time deposits, and government deposits often have different cash reserve ratios.

Deposit Multiplier Example

It is sometimes said that banks make tremendous profits through the deposit multiplier effect. One should however keep in mind that for every additional fraction of deposit banks not only have additional income from extra advances but also extra expenses as extra deposits are their liabilities. For example, a reserve of $1,000,000 will allow banks to make almost $9,000,000 of advances. They will receive income on 9x the reserves, but also pay interest on 10x the same reserves as well.

Assuming a 10% reserve ratio requirement, 4% on deposits and 6% from advances (loans), net interest income is ultimately tending towards 14% of the reserves, which is 9x the 2% spread between interest received minus interest paid, minus the 4% interest paid on the deposits which make up the reserves itself.

An example of the creation of new money in the USA

The following steps describe one way that new money can be created in the USA.

  1. The government issues a Treasury security. This is simply an IOU, a promise to pay the holder a specified sum of money on a particular date. In this example, let's say the government issues $1,000,000 worth of bonds.
  2. The Federal Reserve prints a check, in the amount of $1,000,000 and makes it payable to the government. This check is the proceeds from the sale of the bonds.
  3. The $1,000,000 of bonds is recorded as an asset by the Fed. (money owed to the central bank is called an "asset" by the bank) It is assumed the government, with its power to tax, will make good on its debt (this is why the people buying the bonds from the fed consider it a risk-free investment). The Fed can sell these bonds which are a liability of the government. Individual investors, pension funds, mutual funds, insurance agencies, banks, foreign government central banks, can all buy the bonds, effectively loaning money to the treasury. They do this to invest their money and receive interest in return.
  4. The government deposits the check in its own account. The government hires employees and buys goods with the $1,000,000, and it does so by writing government checks. These government checks are then deposited in commercial banks. For the sake of simplicity, assume it all goes into one commercial bank, which has a zero balance to begin with.
  5. The commercial bank now claims $1,000,000 in new liabilities (the amount on deposit in a bank is called a "liability" by the bank, because the bank has to pay interest to it, amongst other things). In the US, the law allows the bank to make loans so long as it retains a 10% cash reserve. This lending of money that it has on deposit is the precise point at which new money is created, because the depositor still has his money, and the person getting the loan now has money too. If the $1,000,000 is held by the bank as notes then it can lend $900,000 to borrowers.
  6. $900,000 is loaned for various purposes eg. to buy a house. These loans are in the form of money transfer. The bank transfers the money to the buyer's attorney who transfers it to the seller, who deposits it right back into the bank. Note however, in real life that money would only come from the bank temporarily, which then would issue its own bonds or use a company like Fannie Mae to issue its own bonds, so that again investors can actually lend the money while the bank is simply a middleman, called a "servicer".
  7. The commercial bank now claims $900,000 in new liabilities. This money is put into reserves, and 90% of that, or $810,000 is lent out. As soon as the $810,000 is deposited back into the bank, the cycle repeats and repeats until there are no more borrowers.
  8. The total amount that can be lent out to borrowers in this manner is $900,000 + $810,000 + $729,000 ... = $9,000,000. Assuming that people don't keep significant quantities of cash, total amount of deposits in the bank is $10,000,000. Total money supply is $10,000,000. Total amount of debt in the economy is $9,000,000. Cumulative net worth of all individuals in the country is $1,000,000 (equal to the amount of money created by the Fed).
  9. Commercial banks make profit by charging fees for transactions, and by charging a higher interest rate to those they lend to, than what they pay for the funds. If the commercial bank charges 6% interest on the $9,000,000 it will earn $540,000 per year. If the bank making the loan pays 1% interest to the person who put the money on deposit in the first place it will cost them $100,000 per year.
  10. With 90% of that money lent out, if the original depositor wants their money back, the bank has to borrow that money from another bank (or maybe from another source), at rate of interest set by the government (the overnight rate, or the federal funds rate in the US). This is called "asset-liability bouncing", and is a delicate balancing act all banks must work on every day.

Gold Standard

The gold standard is a monetary system in which the standard economic unit of account is a fixed weight of gold..

Under the gold standard, currency issuers guarantee to redeem notes, upon demand, in that amount of gold. Governments that employ such a fixed unit of account, and which will redeem their notes to other governments in gold, share a fixed-currency relationship.

Supporters of the gold standard claim it is more resistant to credit and debt expansion. Unlike a fiat currency, the money backed by gold cannot be created arbitrarily by government action just by printing banknotes. This restraint prevents artificial inflation by the devaluation of currency. This is supposed to remove "currency uncertainty," keep the credit of the issuing monetary authority sound, and encourage lending. Nevertheless, countries under a not truly 100% gold standard, like countries simultaneously using manipulated paper currencies, underwent debt crises and depressions throughout the history of its use with the Central Bank manipulation and inflation of the currency as the U.S. experienced in its Panic of 1819 after its Second National Bank was chartered in 1816.

The gold standard is no longer used in any nation, having been replaced completely by fiat currency. However, it is still in use by some private institutions.

Why gold?

Due to its rarity, durability, and the general ease of identification through its unique color, weight, ductility and acoustic properties, gold is a commodity that merchants and traders came to select as a common unit of account - thus it has long been used as a form of money and store of wealth.

A large variety of commodities have been used for money, including such unlikely candidates as cowrie shells and tobacco leaves. The desirable properties for a material to choose as a basis for money are (in no particular order):

  1. Identifiability
  2. Durability
  3. Stability of quantity
  4. Freedom from intrinsic price fluctuations

Gold meets all of these criteria, and is arguably the only material in the world that does. The quantity of gold available to the human race has not varied significantly in centuries, and the addition from mining activities is small and predictable. The majority of the stock is used in its "function" as a store of value. The only other market demands are for electronics, dentistry and jewelry. The use in jewelry and other artifacts is arguably as much for its significance as a store of value as for its decorative properties. The other two usages are tiny in proportion to the quantity stored as bullion, and the demand for dental purposes is declining as preferences change to more natural-looking alternatives. Any other commodity would introduce distortions in the value of money in response to changes in the balance between its own supply and demand.

The exact nature of the evolution of money varies significantly across time and place, though it is believed by historians that gold's high value for its beauty, density, resistance to corrosion, uniformity, and easy divisibility made it useful both as a store of value and as a unit of account for stored value of other kinds — in Babylon, a bushel of wheat was the unit of account, with a weight in gold used as the token to transport value. Early monetary systems based on grain used gold to represent the stored value. Banking began when gold deposited in a bank could be transferred from one account to another by a giro system, or lent at interest.

Its high density means that attempts to extend it by alloying with other metals are easily detected (as is noted in the famous story of Archimedes and the King of Syracuse. Few metals are more dense. Of the more easily obtainable ones, only osmium (22.6), iridium (22.4), platinum (21.45), rhenium (21.0) and tungsten (19.35) are denser than gold (19.32). All except tungsten are priced nearly as much as gold or far higher. An alloy of gold and tungsten would be difficult and impractical to create.

When used as part of a commodity money system, the function of paper currency is to reduce the danger of transporting gold, reduce the possibility of debasement of coins, and avoid the reduction in circulating medium to hoarding and losses. The early development of paper money was spurred originally by the unreliability of transportation and the dangers of long voyages, as well as by the desire of governments to control or regulate the flow of commerce within their dominion. Money backed by a specie sometimes is called representative money, and the notes issued often are called certificates, to differentiate them from other forms of paper money.

Through most of human history, however, silver was the primary circulating medium and major monetary metal. Gold was used as an ultimate store of value, and as means of payment when portability was at a premium, particularly for payment of armies. Gold would supplant silver as the basic unit of international trade at various times, including the Islamic Golden Age, the peak of the Italian trading states during the Renaissance, and most prominently during the 19th century. Gold would remain the metal of monetary reserve accounting until the collapse of the Bretton Woods agreement in 1971, and it remains an important hedge against the actions of central banks and governments, a means of maintaining general liquidity, and as a store of value.

The total amount of gold that has ever been mined is surprisingly small - about 125,000 tonnes.

If all of it were stacked up in one place, it could be fitted into a small basketball hall (the stack would be about 18m x 36m x 9m). At current gold price of around $640 per Troy ounce, or around $20,000 per kilogram, the value of this entire planetary stock would be $2.5 trillion, which is less than the value of currency circulating (including bank current account balances) in the US alone. Thus any proposed gold standard would necessarily operate on a fractional reserve basis.

Early coinage

The first metal used as a currency was silver more than 4,000 years ago, when silver ingots were used in trade. Gold coins first were used from 600 B.C. However, long before this time, gold, as per silver, was used as a store of wealth and the basis for trade contracts in Akkadia, and later in Egypt. Silver remained the most common monetary metal used in ordinary transactions until the 20th century. It still circulates in certain bi-metallic coins, such as the Mexican 20-peso coin circa 2005.

The Persian Empire collected taxes in gold, and when it was conquered by Alexander the Great, this gold became the basis for the gold coinage of Alexander's empire. The paying of mercenaries and armies in gold solidified its importance: gold became synonymous with paying for military operations, as mentioned by Niccolò Machiavelli in The Prince 2,000 years later. The Roman Empire minted two important gold coins: the aureus, which was approximately 7 grams of gold alloyed with silvers, and the smaller solidus, which weighed 4.4 grams, of which 4.2 was gold. The Roman mints were fantastically active — the Romans minted and circulated millions of coins during the course of the Republic and the Empire.

After the collapse of the Western Roman Empire and the exhaustion of the gold mines in Europe, the Byzantine empire minted successor coins to the solidus called the nomisma or bezant. These were of the same weight and high purity as their Western Empire counterparts and still are considered to be solidi. Unfortunately, the Byzantine empire gradually degraded the purity of the coin from about the 1030s until, by the turn of the 11th century, the coinage in circulation was only 15% gold by weight. This represented a tremendous drop in real value from the old 95% to 98% gold Roman coins.

From the late seventh century, trade was increasingly conducted in the dinar. The dinar was a gold coin modeled on the original Roman solidus, having similar size and weight to the Byzantine solidus but produced by the Arab Empire. The Byzantine solidus and the Arab dinar circulated alongside one another for about 350 years before the solidus began its decline.

The dinar and dirham were gold and silver coins, respectively, originally minted by the Persians. The Caliphates in the Islamic world adopted these coins, but it is with Caliph Abd al-Malik (685–705) who reformed the currency that the history of the dinar usually is thought to begin. He removed depictions from coins, established standard references to Allah on the coins and fixed the ratio of silver to gold. The growth of Islamic power and trade made the dinar the dominant coin from the Western coast of Africa to northern India until the late 1200s, and it continued to be one of the predominant coins for hundreds of years afterward. In this way the solidus size, purity and weight of coin - whether it was called the dinar, the bezant, or the solidus itself - was a desired unit of account for more than 1,300 years and outlived three global empires.

In 1284, the Republic of Venice coined its first solid gold coin, the ducat, which was to become the standard of European coinage for the next 600 years. Other coins, the florin, noble, grosh, złoty, and guinea, also were introduced at this time by other European states to facilitate growing trade. The ducat, because of Venice's pre-eminent role in trade with the Islamic world and its ability to secure fresh stocks of gold, would remain the standard against which other coins were measured.

Beginning with the conquest of the Aztec and Inca Empires, Spain had access to stocks of new gold for coinage in addition to silvers. The primary Spanish gold unit of account was the escudo, and the basic coin the 8 "escudos" piece, or "doblón", which originally was set at 27.4680 grams of 22 carat (92%) gold, using current measures, and was valued at 16 times the equivalent weight of silvers. The wide availability of milled and cob gold coins made it possible for the West Indies to make gold the only legal tender in 1704. The circulation of Spanish coins would create the unit of account for the United States, the "dollar" based on the Spanish silver real, and Philadelphia's currency market would trade in Spanish colonial coins.

History of the modern gold standard

The adoption of gold standards proceeded gradually. This has led to conflicts between different economic historians as to when the "real" gold standard began. Sir Isaac Newton included a ratio of gold to silver in his assay of coinage in 1717 that created a relationship between gold coins and the silver penny, which was to be the standard unit of account in the Law of Queen Anne; for some historians this marks the beginning of the "gold standard" in England. However, more generally accepted is that a full gold standard requires that there be one source of notes and legal tender, and that this source be backed by convertibility to gold[citation needed]. Since this was not the case throughout the 18th century, the generally accepted view is that England was not on a gold standard at this time.

The crisis of silver currency and bank notes (1750–1870)

In the late 18th century, wars and trade with China, which sold many trade goods to Europe but had little use for European goods, drained silver from the economies of Western Europe and the United States. Coins were struck in smaller and smaller amounts, and there was a proliferation of bank and stock notes used as money.

In the 1790s Britain suffered a massive shortage of silver coinage and ceased to mint larger silver coins. It issued "token" silver coins and overstruck foreign coins. With the end of the Napoleonic Wars, Britain began a massive recoinage program that created standard gold sovereigns and circulating crowns, half-crowns, and eventually copper farthings in 1821. The recoinage of silver in Britain after a long drought produced a burst of coins; Britain struck nearly 40 million shillings between 1816 and 1820, 17 million half-crowns and 1.3 million silver crowns. The 1819 Act for the Resumption of Cash Payments set 1823 as the date for resumption of convertibility, reached instead by 1821. Throughout the 1820s, small notes were issued by regional banks, which finally were restricted in 1826, while the Bank of England was allowed to set up regional branches. In 1833, however, the Bank of England notes were made legal tender, and redemption by other banks was discouraged. In 1844 the Bank Charter Act established that Bank of England notes, fully backed by gold, were the legal standard. According to the strict interpretation of the gold standard, this 1844 Act marks the establishment of a full gold standard for British money.

As a result, many of Britain's colonies were forced to resort to using token coins in the 1800s. Large numbers of token coins were issued by businesses at this time. The most famous of which is the trade tokens of Strachan and Company, South Africa's first widely circulating indigenous currency - first issued in East Griqualand in 1874.

The US adopted a silver standard based on the "Spanish milled dollar" in July 1785. This was codified in the 1792 Mint and Coinage Act and by the Federal Government's use of the "Bank of the United States" to hold its reserves, as well as establishing a fixed ratio of gold to the US dollar. This was, in effect, a derivative silver standard, since the bank was not required to keep silver to back all of its currency. This began a long series of attempts for America to create a bimetallic standard for the US Dollar, which would continue until the 1930s. Gold and silver coins were legal tender, including the Spanish real, a silver coin struck in the Western Hemisphere. Because of the huge debt taken on by the US Federal Government to finance the Revolutionary War, silver coins struck by the government left circulation, and in 1806 President Jefferson suspended the minting of silver coins.

The US Treasury was put on a strict "hard money" standard, doing business only in gold or silver coin as part of the Independent Treasury Act of 1846, which legally separated the accounts of the Federal Government from the banking system. However, the fixed rate of gold to silver overvalued silver in relation to the demand for gold to trade or borrow from England. The drain of gold in favor of silver led to the search for gold, including the "California Gold Rush" of 1849. Following Gresham's law, silver poured into the US, which traded with other silver nations, and gold moved out. In 1853, the US reduced the silver weight of coins, to keep them in circulation, and in 1857 removed legal tender status from foreign coinage.

In 1857 the final crisis of the free banking era of international finance began, as American banks suspended payment in silver, rippling through the very young international financial system of central banks. In the United States this collapse was a contributory factor in the American Civil War, and in 1861 the US government suspended payment in gold and silver, effectively ending the attempts to form a silver standard for the dollar. Through the 1860–1871 period various attempts to resurrect bi-metallic standards were made, including one based on the gold and silver franc, however, with the rapid influx of silver from new deposits, the expectation of scarcity of silver ended.

The interaction between central banking and currency basis formed the primary source of monetary instability during this period. The combination that produced economic stability was restriction of supply of new notes, a government monopoly on the issuance of notes directly and indirectly, a central bank and a single unit of value. Attempts to evade these conditions produced periodic monetary crises — as notes devalued, or silver ceased to circulate as a store of value, or there was a depression as governments, demanding specie as payment, drained the circulating medium out of the economy. At the same time there was a dramatically expanded need for credit, and large banks were being chartered in various states, including, by 1872, Japan. The need for a solid basis in monetary affairs would produce a rapid acceptance of the gold standard in the period that followed.

Establishment of the international gold standard

Germany was created as a unified country following the Franco-Prussian War; it established the mark, went on to a strict gold standard, and used gold mined in South Africa to expand the money supply. Rapidly most other nations followed suit, since gold became a transportable, universal and stable unit of valuation. See Globalization.

Dates of adoption of a gold standard:

Throughout the decade of the 1870s deflationary and depressionary economics created periodic demands for silver currency. However, such attempts generally failed, and continued the general pressure towards a gold standard. By 1879, only gold coins were accepted through the Latin Monetary Union, composed of France, Italy, Belgium, Switzerland and later Greece, even though silver was, in theory, a circulating medium.

Alternate currencies

At the same time it caused a dramatic fall in aggregate demand, and a series of long Depressions in the United States and the United Kingdom. This should not be confused with the failure to industrialize or a slowing of total output of goods. Thus the attempts to produce alternate currencies include the introduction of Postal Money Orders in Britain in 1881, later made legal tender during World War I, and the "Greenback" party in the US, which advocated the slowing of the retirement of paper currency not backed by gold.

Effects on taxation

By encouraging industrial specialization, industrializing countries grew rapidly in population, and therefore needed sources of agricultural goods. The need for cheap agricultural imports, in turn, further pressured states to reduce tariffs and other trade barriers, so as to be able to exchange with the industrial nations for capital goods, such as factory machinery, which were needed to industrialize in turn. Eventually this pressured taxation systems, and pushed nations towards income and sales taxes, and away from tariffs. It also produced a constant downward pressure on wages, which contributed to the "agony of industrialization". The role of the gold standard in this process remains hotly debated, with new articles being published attempting to trace the interconnections between monetary basis, wages and living standards.

Effects on rural communities

By the 1890s in the United States, a reaction against the gold standard had emerged centered in the Southwest and Great Plains. Many farmers began to view the scarcity of gold, especially outside the banking centers of the East, as an instrument to allow Eastern bankers to instigate credit squeezes that would force western farmers into widespread debt, leading to a consolidation of western property into the hands of the centralized banks. The formation of the Populist Party in Lampasas, Texas specifically centered around the use of "easy money" that was not backed by gold and which could flow more easily through regional and rural banks, providing farmers access to needed credit. Opposition to the gold standard during this era reached its climax with the presidential campaign of Democrat William Jennings Bryan of Nebraska. Bryan argued against the gold standard in his Cross of Gold speech in 1896, comparing the gold standard (and specifically its effects on western farmers) to the Crown of Thorns worn by Jesus at his crucifixion. After being defeated in 1896, Bryan ran and lost again in 1900 and 1908, each time carrying mostly Southern and Great Plains states. The book (and, subsequentially, the movie) The Wonderful Wizard of Oz has been interpreted as an allegory for the politics surrounding the Gold Standard with the "Yellow Brick Road" - see Political interpretations of The Wonderful Wizard of Oz, [2] and [3] which points out that Dorothy returned with silver (not ruby) slippers.

Effects on interest rates

The key change in this period was the adoption of a monetary policy to raise interest rates in response to gold outflows, or to maintain large stocks of gold in the reserves of the central bank. This policy created a credibility of commitment to the gold standard. According to Lawrence Officer and Alberto Giovanni, this can be seen from the relationship between the Bank of England rate, and the flow between the pound and the dollar, mark and franc. From 1889 through 1908, the pound maintained a direct bank rate rule relationship with the dollar 99% of the time, and 92% of the time with the mark. Thus, according to the theory of gold standard monetary dynamics, the key to this credibility was the willingness of the Bank of England to make adjustments to the discount rate to stabilize sterling to other currencies in the gold, or de facto gold, standard world, during the peak period of the gold standard composed of 360 months, the Bank of England bank rate was adjusted over 200 times in response to gold flows, a rate of change higher than current central banks.

Gold standard from peak to crisis (1901–1932)

An increase in living standards

By 1900 the need for a lender of last resort had become clear to most major industrialized nations. The importance of central banking to the financial system was proven largely by examples such as the 1890 bail out of Barings Bank by the Bank of England. Barings had been threatened by imminent bankruptcy. Only the United States still lacked a central banking system.

There had been occasional panics since the end of the depressions of the 1880s and 1890s which some attributed to the centralization of production and banking. The increased rate of industrialization and imperial colonization, however, had also served to push living standards higher. Peace and prosperity reigned through most of Europe, albeit with growing agitation in favor of socialism and communism because of the extremely harsh conditions of early industrialization.

Abandoning the standard to fund the war

This came to an abrupt halt with the outbreak of World War I. The United Kingdom was almost immediately forced to take steps that would lead to its gradually leaving its gold standard, ending convertibility to Bank of England notes starting in 1914. By the end of the war England was on a series of fiat currency regulations, which monetized Postal Money Orders and Treasury Notes (later called banknotes, not to be confused with US Treasury notes). The need for larger and larger engines of war, including battleships and munitions, created inflation. Nations responded by printing more money than could be redeemed in gold, effectively betting on winning the war and redeeming out of reparations, as Germany had in the Franco-Prussian War. The US and the UK both instituted a variety of measures to control the movement of gold, and to reform the banking system, but both were forced to suspend use of the gold standard by the costs of the war. The Treaty of Versailles instituted punitive reparations on Germany and the defeated Central Powers, and France hoped to use these to rebuild her shattered economy, as much of the war had been fought on French soil. Germany, facing the prospect of yielding much of her gold in reparations, could no longer coin gold “Reichsmarks,” and moved to paper currency.

The series of arrangements to prop up the gold standard in the 1920s would constitute a book length study unto themselves, with the Dawes Plan superseded by the Young Plan. In effect the US, as the most persistent positive balance of trade nation, lent the money to Germany to pay off France, so that France could pay off the United States. After the war, the Weimar Republic suffered from hyperinflation and introduced “rentenmark,” an asset currency, to halt it. This worked properly, although one more year had to pass until a new gold backed reichsmark came into circulation.

Return to the gold standard

In the UK the pound was returned to the gold standard in 1925, by the somewhat reluctant Chancellor of the Exchequer Winston Churchill, on the advice of conservative economists at the time. Although a higher gold price and significant inflation had followed the WWI ending of the gold standard, Churchill returned to the standard at the pre-war gold price. For five years prior to 1925 the gold price was managed downward to the pre-war level, meaning a significant deflation was forced onto the economy.

John Maynard Keynes was one economist who argued against the adoption of the pre-war gold price believing that the rate of conversion was far too high and that the monetary basis would collapse. He called the gold standard “that barbarous relic.” This deflation reached across the remnants of the British Empire everywhere the Pound Sterling was still used as the primary unit of account. In the UK the standard was again abandoned on September the 20:th 1931. Sweden abandoned the gold standard in October 1931, the US in 1933, and other nations were, to one degree or another, forced off the gold standard.

The depression and Second World War (1933–1945)

The London conference

In 1933, during the Great Depression, the London conference marked the death of the international gold standard as it had developed to that point in time. While the United Kingdom and the United States desired an eventual return to the Gold Standard, with President Franklin D. Roosevelt saying that a return to international stability “must be based on silver instead of gold” — neither was willing to do so immediately. France and Italy both sent delegations insisting on an immediate return to a fully convertible international gold standard. A proposal was floated to stabilize exchange rates between France, the United Kingdom and the United States based on a system of drawing rights, but this too collapsed.

The central point at issue was what value the gold standard should take. Cordell Hull, the US Secretary of State, was instructed to require that reflation of prices occur before returning to the Gold Standard. There was also deep suspicion that the United Kingdom would use favorable trading arrangements in the Commonwealth to avoid fiscal discipline. Since the collapse of the Gold Standard was attributed, at the time, to the U.S. and the UK trying to maintain an artificially low peg to gold, agreement became impossible. Another fundamental disagreement was the role of tariffs in the collapse of the gold standard, with the liberal government of the United States taking the position that the actions of the previous American Administration had exacerbated the crisis by raising tariff barriers.

The gold ban

As part of this process, many nationscitation needed, including the U.S., banned private ownership of gold using the Trading With the Enemy Act for statutory authority to abrogate gold and silver clauses in U.S. Securities and impose fines of up to $10,000 on those who refused to do so. Over this period President Franklin D. Roosevelt passed two laws prohibiting U.S. citizens and the Federal Reserve ownership of gold, Executive Order 6102 of 1933 and the Gold Reserve Act of 1934. Jewelry, private coin collections, and the like were exempt from this ban, which in any case seems not to have been enforced too zealously. On Jan. 1, 1975 all restrictions on the right of American citizens to own gold were abolished.

During the period of the gold ban American citizens were required to hold only legal tender in the form of central bank notes. While this move was argued for under national emergency, it was controversial at the time. The Supreme Court upheld the Congressional action in 1934 [4], but there are still some who regard it as an usurpation of private property [5].

Stabilizing global finance

In the years that followed, nations pursued bilateral trading agreements, and by 1935 the economic policies of most Western nations were increasingly dominated by the growing realization that a global conflict was highly likely, or even inevitable. During the 1920s the austerity measures taken to restabilize the world financial system had cut military expenditures drastically, but with the arming of the Axis powers, war in Asia, and fears of the Soviet Union exporting communist revolution, the priority shifted toward armament, and away from re-establishing a gold standard. The last gasp of the nineteenth century gold standard came when the attempt to balance the United States Budget in 1937 led to the “Roosevelt Recession.” Even such gold advocates as Roosevelt’s budget director conceded that until it was possible to balance the budget, a gold standard would be impossible.

24.19.57.35 07:51, 8 August 2007 (UTC)This whole block is not founded in fact and gives the perception that it was pillaged money that funded the reich war effort only. It needs facts and references. There is no emprirical data that indicates how gold was used and translated into cash. It also was not substantial.

British hesitate to return to gold standard

During the 1939–1942 period, the UK depleted much of its gold stock in purchases of munitions and weaponry on a “cash and carry” basis from the US and other nations. This depletion of the UK’s reserve signalled to Winston Churchill that returning to a pre-war style gold standard was impractical; instead, John Maynard Keynes, who had argued against such a gold standard, became increasingly influential: his proposals, a more wide ranging version of the “stability pact” style gold standard, would find expression in the Bretton Woods Agreement.

Post-war international gold standard (1946–1971)

Theory

The essential features of the gold standard in theory rest on the idea that inflation is caused by an increase in the quantity of money, an idea advocated by David Hume, and that uncertainty over the future purchasing power of money depresses business confidence and leads to reduced trade and capital investment. The central thesis of the gold standard is that removing uncertainty, friction between kinds of currency, and possible limitations in future trading partners will dramatically benefit an economy, by expanding the market for its own goods, the solidity of its credit, and the markets from which its consumers may purchase goods. In much of gold standard theory, the benefits of enforcing monetary and fiscal discipline on the government are central to the benefits obtained; advocates of the gold standard often believe that governments are almost entirely destructive of economic activity, and that a gold standard, by reducing their ability to intervene in markets, will increase personal liberty and economic vitality.

Differing definitions of gold standard

If the monetary authority holds sufficient gold to convert all circulating money, then this is known as a 100% reserve gold standard, or a full gold standard. In some cases it is referred to as the Gold Specie Standard to more easily separate it from the other forms of gold standard that have existed at various times.

Some believe there is no other kind of Gold Standard other than the 100% reserve Gold Specie Standard. This is because in any partial gold standard there is some amount of circulating paper that isn't backed by gold, and hence it is possible for monetary issuing authorities to attempt to use seigniorage, and possibly inflation. Others, such as some modern advocates of supply-side economics contest that so long as gold is the accepted unit of account then it is a true gold standard.

Detractors of the 100% reserve standard think it to be unworkable for two reasons: one is that the quantity of gold in the world is too small a quantity of money to sustain current worldwide economic activity. The other is that the "right" quantity of money (ie one that avoids either inflation or deflation) is not a fixed quantity, but varies continuously with the level of commercial activity.

Proponents of the 100% reserve standard argue that supply is not important. The primary function of the money circulating is to measure the exchange value of a given item. As a result, if manufacturing advancements make it easier to develop a particular item, then that item will inevitably measure a smaller amount of value thus costing less to an average consumer. Accordingly, they believe that a free market will simply adjust the purchasing power of it's gold unit of currency.

In a national Gold Standard system, gold coins circulate freely as money, and paper money is directly convertible into gold at a market rate (not enforced by government fiat), reflecting the value of the paper money as a claim check giving the holder the right to a specified amount of gold coin held by the issuer of the note.

However, where the value of paper money varies against gold, this indicates that the paper money is fiat money and will often devalue against specie. This has been the case during wars when governments would issue paper currency not backed by specie. Examples include Greenbacks issued by the Union during the American Civil War, and paper marks issued by Austria during the Napoleonic Wars. Such episodes have traditionally lead to calls to restore sound money after the war—that is, a hard currency monetary system.

Supporters of the Gold Standard point out that there has never been a case of a fiat currency which has failed to suffer from inflation sooner or later, possibly due the incompetence of those charged with administering it, or perhaps more importantly due to the inability of governments to resist the temptation to print ever greater quantities of money to finance their deficit and channel money to their favourable groups.

In an international gold-standard system, which may exist in the absence of any internal gold standard, gold or a currency that is convertible into gold at a fixed price is used as a means of making international payments. Under such a system, when exchange rates rise above or fall below the fixed mint rate by more than the cost of shipping gold from one country to another, large inflows or outflows occur until the rates return to the official level. International gold standards often limit which entities have the right to redeem currency for gold. Under the Bretton Woods system, these were called "SDRs" for Special Drawing Rights.

Effects of gold-backed currency

The commitment to maintain gold convertibility tightly restrains credit creation. Credit creation by banking entities under a gold standard threatens the convertibility of the notes they have issued, and consequently leads to undesirable gold outflows from that bank. The result of a failure of confidence produces a run on the specie basis, which is generally responded to by the bankers suspending specie payments. Hence, notes circulating in any “partial” gold standard will either be redeemed for their face value of gold (which would be higher than its actual value) — this constitutes a “bank run;” or the market value of such notes will be viewed as less than a gold coin representing the same amount.

Perceived stability offered by gold standard

The gold standard, in theory, limits the power of governments to cause price inflation by excessive issue of paper currency, although there is evidence that before World War I monetary authorities did not expand or contract the supply of money when the country incurred a gold outflow. It is also supposed to create certainty in international trade by providing a fixed pattern of exchange rates. After the inflationary silver standards of the 1700s, this was regarded as a welcome relief, and an inducement to trade. However by the late nineteenth century, agitation against the gold standard drove political movements in most industrialized nations for some form of silver-based, or even paper-based, currency.

Under the classical international gold standard, disturbances in the price level in one country would be wholly or partly offset by an automatic balance-of-payment adjustment mechanism called the “price-specie-flow mechanism” (“specie” refers to gold coins). The steps in this mechanism are first: when the price of a good drops, because of oversupply, capital improvement, drop in input costs or competition, buyers will prefer that good over others. Because of the stabilization of currencies to gold, buyers within the gold-based economies will preferentially buy the lowest priced good, and gold will flow into the most efficient economies. This flow of gold into the more productive economy will then increase the money supply, and produce sufficient inflationary pressure to offset the original drop in prices in the more productive economy, and would reduce the circulating specie in the less productive economies, forcing prices down until equilibrium was restored.

Central banks, in order to limit gold outflows, would reinforce this by raising interest rates, so as to bring prices back into international equilibrium more quickly. In theory, as long as nations remained on the gold standard, there would be no sustained period of either high inflation, or uncontrolled deflation. Since, at the time, it was believed that markets internally always clear (See Say’s Law), and that deflation would alter the price of capital first, it meant that this would reduce the price of capital, and allow more growth as well as long term price stability. However, in practice this turned out not to be the case: it was wages, not capital, that depreciated in price first.

Mundell-Fleming model

According to modern neo-classical synthesis economics, the Mundell-Fleming Model describes the behavior of currencies under a gold standard. Since the value of the currencies is fixed by the par value of each currency to gold, the remaining freedom of action is distributed between free movement of capital, and effective monetary and fiscal policy. One reason that most modern macro-economists do not support a return to gold is the fear that this remaining amount of freedom would be insufficient to combat large downturns or deflation. The theoretical possibility of a return to a gold standard has another effect, namely, the question of central bank credibility in a regime not based on hard currencies. Given that major prizes are still awarded for these questions, the gold standard eras, both the nineteenth century and twentieth century versions, remain a baseline against which the current floating currency monetary system is measured.

Mundell argued that it would be possible to return to an international gold standard, or even a national one, since in an industrial economy a great deal of capital is immobile. This would allow, in his opinion, a central bank to have sufficient freedom of action to engage in limited counter-cyclical actions, that is, lowering interest rates at the onset of a downturn, raising them to prevent overheating of the economy. This was disputed by Friedman who argued that quantity-of-money effects would produce deflation in such a system, and that successful nations would see less benefit than Mundell expected, since gold entering a nation would produce internal inflation. This argument mirrors the one made by Adam Smith and David Hume in the eighteenth century about increasing the quantity of money not being a worthwhile objective.

Advocates of a renewed gold standard

The internal gold standard is supported by monetarists[dubious ], Objectivists, followers of the Austrian School of Economics, Islamists such as the Hizb ut-Tahrir, and many libertarians. Support for a gold standard is related to the failure of central banks and governments to maintain the purchasing power of fiat money—gold standard removes the ability of a government to devalue money artificially.

The international gold standard still has advocates who wish to return to a Bretton Woods-style system, in order to reduce the volatility of currencies, but the unworkability of Bretton Woods, due to its government-ordained exchange ratio, has allowed the followers of Austrian economists Ludwig von Mises, Friedrich Hayek and Murray Rothbard to foster the idea of a total emancipation of the gold price from a State-decreed rate of exchange and an end to government monopoly on the issuance of gold currency.

Many nations back their economies by holding gold reserves. These reserves are not intended to redeem notes, but are retained as a hard liquid asset to protect against hyperinflation. Gold advocates claim that this extra step would no longer be necessary since the currency itself would have its own intrinsic store of value. A Gold Standard then is generally promoted by those who regard a stable store of value as the most important element to business confidence.

It is generally opposed by the vast majority of governments and economists, because the gold standard has frequently been shown to provide insufficient flexibility in the supply of money and in fiscal policy, because the supply of newly mined gold is finite and must be carefully husbanded and accounted for.[citation needed] [dubious ]

A single country may also not be able to isolate its economy from depression or inflation in the rest of the world. In addition, the process of adjustment for a country with a payments deficit can be long and painful whenever an increase in unemployment or decline in the rate of economic expansion occurs.

One of the foremost opponents of the gold standard was John Maynard Keynes who scorned basing the money supply on “dead metal.” Keynesians argue that the gold standard creates deflation which intensifies recessions as people are unwilling to spend money as prices fall, thus creating a downward spiral of economic activity. They also argue that the gold standard also removes the ability of governments to fight recessions by increasing the money supply to boost economic growth.

Gold standard proponents point to the era of industrialization and globalization of the nineteenth century as the proof of the viability and supremacy of the gold standard, and point to the UK’s rise to being an imperial power, ruling nearly one quarter of the world's population and forming a trading empire which would eventually become the Commonwealth of Nations as imperial provinces gained independence.

Goldbugs point to gold as a hedge against commodity inflation, and a representation of resource extraction. Since gold can be sold in any currency, on a highly liquid world market, in nearly any country in the world, they view gold as a play against monetary policy follies of central banks, and a means of hedging against currency fluctuations. For this reason they believe that eventually there will be a return to a gold standard, since this is the only “stable” unit of value.

Few economists today advocate a return to the gold standard, other than the Austrian school and some supply-siders. However, many prominent economists are sympathetic with a hard currency basis, and argue against fiat money. This school of thought includes former US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and macro-economist Robert Barro. Greenspan said in 2000 “If you are on a gold standard or other mechanism in which the central banks do not have discretion, then the system works automatically. The reason there is very little support for the gold standard is the consequences of those types of market adjustments are not considered to be appropriate in the twentieth and twenty first century. I am one of the rare people who have still some nostalgic view about the old gold standard, as you know, but I must tell you, I am in a very small minority among my colleagues on that issue.” The current monetary system relies on the US Dollar as an “anchor currency” which major transactions, such as the price of gold itself, are measured in. Currency instabilities, inconvertibility and credit access restriction are a few reasons why the current system has been criticized. A host of alternatives have been suggested, including energy-based currencies, market baskets of currencies or commodities; gold is merely one of these alternatives.

The reason these visions are not practically pursued is much the same reason the gold standard fell apart in the first place: a fixed rate of exchange decreed by governments has no organic relationship between the supply and demand of gold and the supply and demand of goods.[dubious ]

Thus gold standards have a tendency to be abandoned as soon as it becomes advantageous for governments to overlook them. By itself, the gold standard does not prevent nations from switching to a fiat currency when there is a war or other exigency. This happens even though gold gains in value through such circumstances, as people use it to preserve value; the fear is that fiat currency is typically introduced to allow deficit spending, which often leads to either inflation or to rationing.

The practical difficulty that gold is not currently distributed according to economic strength is also a factor: Japan, while one of the world's largest economies, has gold reserves far less than would be required to support that economy.

In 1996 e-gold launched a privately issued digital gold currency system, attempting to replicate a gold standard and create an alternative global monetary system. Other digital gold currency systems soon followed, such as e-Bullion and GoldMoney.

In 2001 Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad proposed a new currency that would be used initially for international trade between Muslim nations. The currency he proposed was called the islamic gold dinar and it was defined as 4.25 grams of 24 carat (100%) gold. Mahathir Mohamad promoted the concept on the basis of its economic merits as a stable unit of account and also as a political symbol to create greater unity between Islamic nations. The purported purpose of this move would be to reduce dependence on the United States dollar as a reserve currency, and to establish a non-debt-backed currency in accord with Islamic law against the charging of interest. Nonetheless, gold dinar currency has not yet materialized However, a digital gold currency called e-dinar has been successfully launched.

Gold as a reserve today

During the 1990s Russia liquidated much of the former USSR's gold reserves, while several other nations accumulated gold in preparation for the Economic and Monetary Union. The Swiss Franc left a full gold-convertible backing. However, gold reserves are held in significant quantity by many nations as a means of defending their currency, and hedging against the US Dollar, which forms the bulk of liquid currency reserves. Weakness in the US Dollar tends to be offset by strengthening of gold prices. Gold remains a principal financial asset of almost all central banks alongside foreign currencies and government bonds. It is also held by central banks as a way of hedging against loans to their own governments as an "internal reserve". Approximately 25% of all above-ground gold is held in reserves by central banks.

Both gold coins and gold bars are widely traded in deeply liquid markets, and therefore still serve as a private store of wealth. Also some privately issued currencies, such as digital gold currency, are backed by gold reserves.

In 1999, to protect the value of gold as a reserve, European Central Bankers signed the "Washington Agreement", which stated they would not allow gold leasing for speculative purposes, nor would they "enter the market as sellers" except for sales that had already been agreed upon.

The end of the Great Commodities Depression has affected the price of gold as well, gold prices rose out of a 20 year trading bracket. This led to a renewed use by monetary authorities of gold to back their currencies, but has not materially affected the use of a gold standard as money. In fact, the reverse is the case, the more expensive gold is, the more expensive the acquisition project to create a gold standard becomes.